Fireside Charts

Photo

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 16:18:32 -0400

Photo

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 07:54:53 -0400

$QQQ beginning to take on a rising bottom to its January range....

Thu, 31 Jan 2013 10:01:59 -0500

$QQQ beginning to take on a rising bottom to its January range. Chart: 60-min.

“For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been...

Sat, 19 Jan 2013 15:27:14 -0500

“For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips. The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until the enthusiasm or panic of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself.”

~J. Paul Getty

$QQQ remains in a 1 buck chop zone for the moment. Relative...

Tue, 15 Jan 2013 18:43:48 -0500

$QQQ remains in a 1 buck chop zone for the moment. Relative strength Vs. the $SPY is very weak. Downside: 66.30, then 66.00, then 65.00 as potential support areas. Upside resistance: the top of this chop zone, 67.30.

Chart: 60-minute, QQQ.

60-min $QQQ chart. I have a swing long in. Avg. 66.54. Risk is...

Wed, 09 Jan 2013 09:02:48 -0500

60-min $QQQ chart. I have a swing long in. Avg. 66.54. Risk is .60 (trailing). Will be watching to see how this falling wedge plays out. If it fails, I’ll look at 65.25 as the next potential support area.

NYSE Summation Index did not fail at 500. Currently at 605....

Tue, 08 Jan 2013 19:17:51 -0500

NYSE Summation Index did not fail at 500. Currently at 605. $NYMO at 32.06. $NYA

“We have tested every system under the sun and, amazingly, we have found one that actually...

Thu, 03 Jan 2013 08:54:00 -0500

“We have tested every system under the sun and, amazingly, we have found one that actually works very well. It is a very good system…(under the realm of) trend following.

The basic premise of the system is that markets move sharply when they move. If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.”

~Paul Tudor Jones

Consecutive Up/Down Days: S&P500 and NASDAQ Composite

Sat, 29 Dec 2012 09:50:00 -0500

Most traders know by now that many U.S. Indexes and ETFs have closed down for five consecutive days or more as of Friday’s close (December 28, 2012). Below is a quick look at two main U.S. Indexes, the S&P-500 and the NASDAQ Composite, and how they performed 1-5 days after closing down 5-days in a row.

Note: Fiscal Cliff talks are in their 13th hour this weekend and could potentially impact market behavior on Monday, December 31st and the following week.

Disclaimer: I realize 2-years is not enough back-test data to base a trade on. Small sample back-testing is done to give traders an understanding of the odds and probabilities involved.

Let’s look at the S&P-500 first. Here’s a two year chart of consecutive up/down days:

The Blue arrow points to the current streak. Yellow arrows note other times over the past 2-years that the S&P-500 has closed down more than 5-days. Here’s a look at how the S&P-500 has performed one day after being down 5-days in a row:

The sixth day looks fairly bearish on this 2-year back-test with 71% of the observations being negative. On the positive side, the draw downs on the sixth day were not too bad, however the negative bias is worth noting.

Here’s a look five days after the S&P-500 had been down 5-days in a row:

Mostly positive a week later with three observations being down -1% or more and one huge draw down of -7% coming in July/August of 2011. Let’s look at the NASDAQ Composite next.

The next day result for the NASDAQ Comp are mildly bullish with 60% of the observations being positive. Only one day that was greater than -2% on the draw down. Here’s a look five day after the NASDAQ Comp was down 5-days in a row:

Solidly bullish over the past 2-years with only one major draw down that rebounded quite nicely.

DOW Bullish Percent Index (22 December 2012)

Sat, 22 Dec 2012 11:20:00 -0500

DOW Bullish Percent Index is in a Bear Correction:

A Bear Correction signal occurs when the Bullish Percent Index is on a P&F sell signal, but advancing with a current column of X’s. Any advance remains a correction until there is a breakout to reverse the sell signal.

The PnF bear (sell) signal warrants caution, but the successful test of the 50 level has the current trend in favor of the bull.

Percent Of Stocks Above Their 20-Day Moving Average

Sun, 09 Dec 2012 11:22:40 -0500

A quick look at the percent of stocks trading above their 20-day simple moving average for a handful of U.S. stock indexes.

DOW - 90%

NASDAQ-100 - 78%

NYA - 75.88%

S&P-100 - 84.85%

S&P-500 - 81%

S&P-600 - 70.45%

$CMCSA (Comcast) re-tested and found potential support at 35...

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 14:09:33 -0500

$CMCSA (Comcast) re-tested and found potential support at 35 recently. Might be up to chanllenging the November highs. I like the way it’s pulling back and continuing higher. On my watch list.

Disclaimer: no postion in $CMCSA at the time of this post.

Looking for a potential swing move out of the blue wedge down to...

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 09:16:49 -0500

Looking for a potential swing move out of the blue wedge down to re-test 24 on XHB.

NASDAQ Down Four Days In A Row

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 08:26:00 -0500

The NASDAQ Composite is down four consecutive days (“4-day cycle”). Thought I’d take a look back and see how returns were one to five days afterward.

Disclaimer: I realize 2-years is not enough backtest data to base a trade on. Small sample backtesting is done to give people an understanding of the odds.

Results the next day after the NASDAQ Comp was down four days in a row. Better than break even odds that it turned positive. Here is a look five days after:

Odds improved over the five days. I also noticed that the odds steadily increased from 1 to 5 days, so it would appear that odds favor the NASDAQ closing higher days after it has closed down four days in a row. Do note though that it is not 100% certain that the NASDAQ will close higher days out. Price is king. We could have one day up to break the cycle and four more days straight down.

Here are the trades five days out:

No huge losses and draw down is reasonable.

Potential support & resistance levels to keep an eye on for...

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 11:21:00 -0500

Potential support & resistance levels to keep an eye on for $GDX. Top 10 GDX holdings (by percent):

(Source: Yahoo)

$GPS Gap fill and 200-day Moving Average around 30.20-ish....

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 15:21:43 -0500

$GPS Gap fill and 200-day Moving Average around 30.20-ish. RSI(2) 2.64.

If Gold does continue to drop, and I’m not suggesting it...

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 09:11:46 -0500

If Gold does continue to drop, and I’m not suggesting it will, potential support areas might be 1700 (short-term, round number), 1675 (previous swing low), and 1630 (potentially a major inflection point, 61.8% Fibonacci level).

Beyond that, would be a total retrace of the move back to 1550 which is potentially a major support area. Mind you, Macro events and buying cycles weigh greater on Gold/Silver than lines drawn on a chart, but these are worthy technical areas to keep in mind.

Disclaimer: no position in Gold or Gold ETFs at the time of this post.

Gold breaking below 1,700 pre-equity market open. Persistent...

Tue, 04 Dec 2012 08:42:00 -0500

Gold breaking below 1,700 pre-equity market open. Persistent selling this morning. As always, it’ll be interesting to see if this selling is bought back through out the day.

Korn vs. Taylor Swift mashup - “We Are Coming...

Sat, 01 Dec 2012 14:06:05 -0500

Korn vs. Taylor Swift mashup - “We Are Coming Undone”

Relentless selling in Gold/Silver today. $GLD (chart) looks like...

Fri, 30 Nov 2012 13:25:07 -0500

Relentless selling in Gold/Silver today. $GLD (chart) looks like it recently broke a rising wedge.

Potential measured move down to 162.25-ish or the 200-SMA. Obviously, as with oil, natural gas, copper, lumber, etc., Macro forces override chart technicals every minute, so maybe it merely grinds sideways before the next leg up or Europe becomes a Chinese labor camp for iPhones and Gold soars.

Though from a strictly chartists POV, it doesn’t look too healthy, atm. A plus: still above the 200-day SMA. And that’s a heavily watch technical even by the Fundy guys.