Fireside Charts: Archive

Apr 16th

1 tag

Jan 31st

1 tag

“For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors – I among them – have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips. The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until the enthusiasm or panic of the speculators...

Jan 19th

3 notes

1 tag

Jan 15th

1 tag

Jan 9th

1 tag

Jan 9th

1 tag

“We have tested every system under the sun and, amazingly, we have found one that actually works very well. It is a very good system…(under the realm of) trend following. The basic premise of the system is that markets move sharply when they move. If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get...

Jan 3rd

1 tag

Consecutive Up/Down Days: S&P500 and NASDAQ...

Most traders know by now that many U.S. Indexes and ETFs have closed down for five consecutive days or more as of Friday’s close (December 28, 2012). Below is a quick look at two main U.S. Indexes, the S&P-500 and the NASDAQ Composite, and how they performed 1-5 days after closing down 5-days in a row. Note: Fiscal Cliff talks are in their 13th hour this weekend and could potentially...

Dec 29th

1 tag

DOW Bullish Percent Index (22 December 2012)

DOW Bullish Percent Index is in a Bear Correction: A Bear Correction signal occurs when the Bullish Percent Index is on a P&F sell signal, but advancing with a current column of X’s. Any advance remains a correction until there is a breakout to reverse the sell signal. The PnF bear (sell) signal warrants caution, but the successful test of the 50 level has the current trend in...

Dec 22nd

1 note

1 tag

Percent Of Stocks Above Their 20-Day Moving...

A quick look at the percent of stocks trading above their 20-day simple moving average for a handful of U.S. stock indexes. DOW - 90% NASDAQ-100 - 78% NYA - 75.88% S&P-100 - 84.85% S&P-500 - 81% S&P-600 - 70.45%

Dec 9th

2 tags

Dec 6th

1 tag

Dec 6th

2 tags

NASDAQ Down Four Days In A Row

The NASDAQ Composite is down four consecutive days (“4-day cycle”). Thought I’d take a look back and see how returns were one to five days afterward. Disclaimer: I realize 2-years is not enough backtest data to base a trade on. Small sample backtesting is done to give people an understanding of the odds. Results the next day after the NASDAQ Comp was down four days in a...

Dec 6th

2 tags

Dec 5th

1 tag

Dec 4th

1 tag

Dec 4th

1 note

1 tag

Dec 4th

1 tag

Dec 1st

2 tags

Nov 30th

2 tags

Nov 30th

1 note

1 tag

“You can make more friends in two months by becoming interested in other people than you can in two years by trying to get other people interested in you.” ~Dale Carnegie

Nov 27th

1 note

2 tags

NASDAQ - Consecutive Up/Down Days

The NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) is also up five consecutive days as of Friday, November 23. Let’s look at the 2-year returns the day after. Disclaimer: I realize 2-years is not a large enough sample size to base trades off. Small sample back testing is provided to give traders an idea of probabilities. No better than 50/50 odds the day after with down days being larger than up days. Next...

Nov 24th

2 tags

$SPX - Consecutive Up/Down Days

The S&P-500 ($SPX) is up for five consecutive days (close - previous close) as of the close on Friday, November 23. Below is a 2-year back test of how the $SPX performed the following trading day. Disclaimer: I realize 2-years is not a large enough sample size to base trades off. Small sample back testing is provided to give traders an idea of probabilities. Nine observations with 78% of...

Nov 24th

1 tag

Nov 23rd

1 note

1 tag

Percent Of Stocks Above The 5-Day Moving Average

A quick look at where we stand on various indexes. Includes a simple 1-year back test below each chart. DOW (currently at 3.33%) Returns after 7-days when the percent of DOW stocks above their 5-day simple moving average closed below 10% (1-year): S&P-500 (11.60%) Returns after 8-days when the percent of S&P-500 stocks above their 5-day simple moving average closed below...

Nov 11th

2 tags

Percent Of SP-500 Stocks With A 14-Day RSI Below...

The first chart is a two year look back that includes that massive spike in 2011 when it looked like Europe was going to implode. The second chart is a one year chart without the 2011 super spike, but includes the May 2012 spike. As you can see, the percent of S&P-500 stocks with an RSI below the 30 level is currently 15% (as of November 10, 2012).

Nov 10th

1 tag

Nov 1st

3 notes

1 tag

Oct 28th

1 tag

Percent Of SP-500 Stocks Above Their 5-Day SMA

Closed Friday at 38.20%. Some simple back testing: Results of looking back two years where the percent of S&P-500 ($SPX) stocks trading above their 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was less than 10%. The above back test then looks out four days after that to see how the $SPX did. Results are fair. Same settings as the 2-year back test (below 10%, look at results after 4-days) only...

Oct 28th

1 tag

VIX Relative To Its 10-Day Moving Average

$VIX relative to its 10-day simple moving average (SMA). Ratio, 2-years.

Oct 25th

1 tag

“It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.” - Jesse Livermore

Oct 23rd

5 notes

1 tag